Rupiah: On a downward trend for
more than two years, the rupiah's exchange value dropped below 12,000 to the US
dollar in November 2013, making it the year's worst performer among Asian
currencies. The driving forces behind the Rupiah's depreciation to a four-year
low were the worsening trade balance and asset sales by global portfolio
investors fearing that the US Federal Reserve would soon begin to reduce
quantitative easing. The weaker rupiah in turn stoked imported inflation by
driving up the domestic cost of imported goods and materials. The current
account deficit reinforced negative sentiment about Indonesia's currency to the
extent that traders appeared to disregard repeated rate hikes and other
countermeasures taken by the central bank. Approaching the end of 2013 however,
a growing number of experts opined that the devaluation no longer fairly
reflected the economic fundamentals, which gives rise to hope that the currency
might regain some strength in 2013. That said, the government appears quite
willing to accept a lower Rupiah as it seeks to bolster exports; it is
therefore unlikely that the currency will return to its 2011 strength any time
soon.
GDP: While still strong by global
comparison, Indonesia's economy has gradually slowed over the past two years.
By the third quarter of 2013, annual GDP growth had declined to 5.6%, down from
6.5% in 2011. The slowdown was at first largely owed to lower global prices for
key Indonesian export commodities such as thermal coal, natural rubber, gold
and crude palm oil, and more recently also to slowing investment and
consumption. Net exports are set to remain subdued going into 2014 amid large
stockpiles of rubber and coal in China. Investors will likely remain cautious
ahead of presidential elections in July, while household spending – the core
pillar of Indonesia's economy – is under the cosh as consumers fret about
inflation. If downward pressure on the Rupiah persists, Bank Indonesia (BI) may
be compelled to raise interest rates further in early 2014, which could hurt
investment and consumption in the short run. On the bright side, public
spending is set to buoy GDP in 2014, as the state budget plan foresees an increase
of 6.7% over 2013, largely to boost infrastructure development. The second half
of the year could see brighter prospects for both investment and household
spending, as inflation is expected to come back down which would allow BI to
relax its monetary policy. Assuming the world economy continues to strengthen,
so should global commodity prices and hence Indonesian exports.
5W + 1 H
1. What
happened to the economy of Indonesia?
the
rupiah's exchange value dropped below 12,000 to the US dollar
2. Who
is responsible for the decline in the rupiah?
because
the government does not quickly take a policy
3. When
the rupiah exchange value dropped below 12.000 to the US dollar/
in
November 2013
4. Where
this problem happen?
In
indonesia
5. Why
this problem happen?
because
responsibility of the governnment does not quickly and Government is too
complacent with the situation before
6. How
can we do with problem like this
let
us at the same evoke Indonesian economy and concerned about the future of our
country, let's do away with the culture of corruption in Indonesia and at
the same let us awaken the Indonesian economy for a better future
referensi
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